US Elections - Times Online - WBLG

Is Obama eyeing McCain as energy secretary?

The plot of the West Wing has been invoked more than a few times during Barack Obama’s ascent to the Oval Office, most recently with the appointment of the chief-of-staff who inspired the acerbic character of Josh Lyman. Now, it seems life could imitate art once more as rumours begin to fly that the president-elect could make the ultimate bipartisan gesture of offering his Republican presidential rival a post in his Cabinet.

As Mr Obama prepared to meet with John McCain today to discuss future cooperation, there was speculation on a number of respected blogs that the Democrat could be considering offering his former opponent the post of Energy Secretary.

It would certainly be a neat end to a contest that has cleaved so faithfully to the storyline of the award-winning show that its writers could do well to consider careers as political oracles: in the final series, a presidential showdown between little-known Latino Democrat Matt Santos – based on Mr Obama – and ageing maverick Republican Arnold Vinick – inspired by Mr McCain – ends with the former becoming America’s first Hispanic president before offering his former rival the plum job of Secretary of State.

The two men’s well-known differences on foreign policy would rule out that particular position but on energy, the (admittedly pale) green credentials of Mr McCain – McCain the senator, that is, as opposed to McCain the base-pandering candidate – make him worthy of serious consideration.

But is it true?

Team Obama: the runners and riders for the next Cabinet

As the President-Elect mulls his Cabinet, we take a look at the runners and riders.

Secretary of State

In the Frame:

Senator Hillary Clinton – Mr Obama’s vanquished primary rival has emerged as a leading contender after it was confirmed she attended a secret meeting with the President-Elect this week. Joe Biden, who is said to have a key role in deciding the post, has expressed admiration for her knowledge of foreign affairs. As an added bonus, the appointment would prevent her from taking shots at an Obama administration in preparation for another run at the presidency.

Senator John Kerry – The 2004 Democratic presidential nominee and Vietnam veteran has a long history of involvement in US foreign policy, having played a key role in exposing illegal CIA activities in support of the Nicaraguan Contras and sponsoring numerous bills relating to terrorism and defence. But though he was initially tipped as a favourite, well-placed sources have suggested this is no longer so.  He may instead inherit Mr Biden’s role as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson – The failed 2008 primary candidate has both Cabinet and foreign policy experience as former Clinton energy secretary and ambassador to the United Nations. He has also been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize for negotiating the release of hostages and political prisoners in Iraq, Cuba and North Korea.

Former Senator Tom Daschle – Arguably a less experienced candidate though the former Senate Majority Leader has served on the Veterans Affairs Committee and was an intelligence officer in the US Air Force before entering politics. He threw his weight behind Mr Obama early on and later became a national campaign co-chair – his loyalty has likely earned him a post, if not this one.

Republican Senator Dick Lugar –  Mr Obama is keen to appoint a Republican to the Cabinet to promote bipartisanship and may offer State to Mr Lugar if he doesn’t do it elsewhere.  The senator spent six years at the helm of the Foreign Relations Committee and much of his work has been focused on disarmament around the world. Co-sponsored the Lugar-Obama Proliferation and Threat Reduction Initiative and backed Mr Obama’s foreign policy approach during his campaign, but may not want the job.

Former UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke – A highly experienced diplomat, has been Assistant Secretary of State for both Europe and Asia and was a top foreign policy adviser in Mrs Clinton’s presidential campaign. Nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize no less than seven times.

Top of agenda: talks with Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela; deal with a resurgent Russia, tackle the Middle East peace process; surf a swelling wave of global expectations.





 

Obama's staff cashing in

Barack Obama's legions of weary campaign staffers have learned they'll be getting a little extra reward for all their hard work. According to the NY Daily News, the Obama campaign has informed staff that they will receive an extra month's salary in their paychecks this month. In addition, they'll also be able to keep their campaign laptop computers and Blackberrys, though they'll be required to pay income taxes on the electronic equipment.

While it's not uncommon for campaigns to give "win bonuses" to key staff, it is unusual to give such bonuses to the vast numbers of low-level staff. Most campaigns can't manage to scrape together the sort of money it takes to do such a thing even if they'd like to. Based on the Obama campaign's September payroll, the checks along will cost them somewhere around $3 million, meaning he ended the campaign with significant financial resources left over.

2012! The Republican runners and riders

Only 48 months to go people! Caught up in the jittery throes of the post-election withdrawal syndrome currently afflicting much of the world's political media, we at Times Online have turned our attention to the Next Big One - 2012! We already know Sarah Palin's seeking the nomination - that is if God gives her the go-ahead sometime between now and late 2010 - but who might she be running against? We look at the likely runners and riders.

Sarah Palin Now a household name, the telegenic Alaska governor garnered the support of 64 per cent of Republicans as the 2012 pick in a Rasmussen poll conducted the day after the election. Adored by the right but disconcerting to moderates, this hot-to-trot gun-toting hockey mom with ultra-conservative cultural values and a deep Pentecostalist faith has plenty of time to hone her political skills ahead of a 2012 run. It has been suggested she might tone down her fiery rhetoric and run on a platform of small government, fiscal conservatism and rooting out corruption - the strategy she employed for her successful 2006 run against Alaska's Republican incumbent governor. And take a crash course in international affairs...

Mike Huckabee The Southern Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor was the favourite of the Christian right during his 2008 primary bid and after Sarah Palin was the most popular choice for the 2012 nominee in last week's Rasmussen poll. Socially conservative, he believes in Creationism and opposes gay marriage, abortion and gun control but is pragmatic on issues such as immigration, trade and energy. His folksy charisma and success in winning much of the south during his primary bid mean he is currently the most serious challenge to a Palin candidacy.

Mitt Romney The former governor of Massachussetts based his campaign for the 2008 Republican nomination primarily on his business acumen as CEO of Bain and Company and of the 2002 Salt Lake Winter Olympics. His social conservatism chimes with the Republican right but his Mormon religion unsettles some evangelicals. Mr Romney came in just behind Mr Huckabee in the Rasmussen 2012 poll as the choice of 11 per cent of Republican voters.

Bobby Jindal Relatively unknown outside the Republican cognoscenti and the state of Louisiana, of which he is governor, Mr Jindal is a socially conservative, intellectually brilliant, young Indian American who insiders believe could lead a much-needed renewal of the Republican party. His stance on issues such as abortion and gun-control - earning him top ratings from America's pro-life and pro-gun organisations - will appeal to the right wing; however his main problem is recognition - though he came in 4th in the Rasmussen poll, a hefty 39 per cent of likely Republican voters said they were unsure what their impression of him was.

Charlie Crist The permatanned Governor of Florida was, like Mr Jindal, Mr Romney and Tim Pawlenty, considered by John McCain as a potential running mate before his gaze settled on Alaska. Though he has similar problems with recognition to Mr Jindal, his fusion of a non-ideological social conservatism with a progressive stance on issues such as the environment and race relations could make him a popular choice among moderates.

Tim Pawlenty Widely considered a leading choice to join Mr McCain on the 2008 ticket, the ambitious Governor of Minnesota has cultivated a regular-Joe persona which, along with his blue collar roots, could appeal to many small town Americans. He ticks traditional Republican boxes such as social conservatism, a tough stance on crime and fiscal conservative, but, like Mr McCain, is more moderate on issues such as global warming, on which he keenly advocates action. However he has similar recognition problems to Mr Jindal and Mr Crist.

Newt Gingrich A well-known Republican name, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives is regarded as a political heavyweight and conservative intellectual who could lead the GOP out of the wilderness. He has all the necessary defence and foreign policy credentials and has publicly stated his interest in a 2012 presidential bid - however, as "the embodiment of what most Americans hate about right-wingers", according to former Clinton aide Paul Begala, could be seen as alienating to moderates.

Alaska Senate race flips to Democrat

In a dramatic overnight shift, Democrat Mark Begich has erased Alaska Senator Ted Stevens' 3,500 vote lead and run up a small, but formidable margin of his own.

After counting thousands of early votes, this morning, the Anchorage Mayor, Begich, leads Alaska's embattled senior Senator by 814 votes. And as Nate Silver, at fivethirtyeight.com, points out, most of the remaining votes come from Democratic-leaning districts, making a comeback a tough prospect for Stevens.

If Begich manages to hold on, this seat will become the seventh pick-up for Democrats, bringing their total in the Senate to 58 seats (including the 2 independents who caucus with Democrats). Incumbent Stevens, of course, was convicted last month of 7 felony counts for accepting $250,000 in gifts and failing to report them.

The Senate races in Minnesota and Georgia remain undecided.

Who is Obama's top priority?

Politico ran a widely-read piece yesterday that documented some former Hillary Clinton staffers' disappointment that Barack Obama has not done more to help Ms Clinton erase the $7.9 million of campaign debt from the Democratic primary.

The reports characterized Ms Clinton's feelings toward Mr Obama's lackluster fundraising efforts for her as a "mild annoyance," given the tremendous amount of campaigning she did for him during the general election. That annoyance may be turned up a notch today, however.

Today, Mr. Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, sent out a fundraising email entitled "Before anything else." The recipient of such top-billing, however, was not Ms Clinton, but the Democratic National Committee, which took out significant loans during the cycle to assist in electing Mr Obama and Democrats in the House and Senate.

According to Politico, "an Obama spokesman didn’t comment but didn’t rule out a debt retirement effort down the road." That doesn't sound like a response that will temper the Clintons' annoyance to me.

What's happening in Minnesota? The Franken-Coleman Senate battle

A week after America packed away its ballot boxes, in Minnesota, one race is still rumbling on. In an agonizingly tight Senate contest, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is clinging to his seat by a rapidly thinning margin in the face of an unlikely challenge from Al Franken, the colourful liberal comedian and Air America Radio host.

When the initial vote count was declared on November 5, Mr Coleman led his rival by 725 votes. But in Minnesota, the election certification process includes county audits before an official result is declared on November 19. As the revised results come in, Mr Coleman’s lead has narrowed to just 204 votes -  and the next county to report, Hennepin County, home to the Democratic-leaning and populous city of Minneapolis, could well propel Mr Franken past his opponent.

Coleman questions validity of revisions

At present Mr Coleman has 1,211,554 votes to Mr Franken's 1,211,350 and the senator’s campaign is scrambling to hold on to every single one. It has questioned the validity of the changes, though Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie has responded that the revisions are typical and that no fraud is being committed. Bloggers such as MN-Publius have noted that Mr Coleman knows this process well as in his 2002 race, the initial tally on election day gave him 8,920 votes more than he was left with after audits – but his margin was still comfortable the campaign did not protest. In fact, says Publius, the election day totals almost always differ greatly from the final tally – in 2006 the junior senator from Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar, gained 2,854 votes, Governor Tim Pawlenty lost 1,375, and Attorney-General Lori Swanson gained 23,059, meaning the changes in the Franken-Coleman race are only anomalous in that they have so far been so minimal.

A recount looms

As the gap is less than 0.5 per cent of the total vote, this increasingly bitter contest looks set for a recount of the full 2.9 million votes cast. The State Canvassing Board reports the official tally on November 19, after which a recount will be triggered by state law. Mr Ritchie has said he hopes to have a final result by December 19 – but by then, any hope of Mr Coleman realising his long-held ambition for an influential committee chairmanship will have long evaporated, as the Senate Republican Conference votes on the positions on November 18.

Obama's first gaffe

By Nico Hines

It was hardly a George W. Bush style "misunderestimated" moment, but Barack Obama was reminded this weekend just how careful he is going to have to be for the next four years. Responding to a question about the number of former presidents he had consulted ahead of entering the White House, he said that he had spoken only to the living ones because: "I don't want to get into a Nancy Reagan thing about seances."

Mrs Reagan was reportedly fond of consulting astrologers while she was First Lady in the 1980s. Within hours of the remark Mr Obama had called to apologise to the 87-year-old who is recovering from a broken hip but the President-elect's first gaffe has been ushered into the Hall of Shame.

Gun sales soar following Obama election

Gun stores across the United States are reporting a massive surge in sales as buyers rush to stockpile firearms in case of a ban under soon-to-be President Obama.

Inquiries by the New York Times found gun shops in several states reporting sales several times higher than normal, with owners reporting widespread fears that an Obama administration

“He’s a gun-snatcher,” Jim Pruett, owner of Jim Pruett’s Guns and Ammo in northwest Houston, told the newspaper. “He wants to take our guns from us and create a socialist society policed by his own police force,” added Mr Pruett, a former radio personality.

The store owner said that sales last Saturday, just ahead of the election, were about seven times higher than a usual good Saturday.

Meanwhile David Nelson, a co-owner of Montana Ordnance & Supply in Missoula, Montana, reported sales about 30 per cent higher overall since Mr Obama declared his candidacy almost two years ago. He said his buyers were “awake and aware and see a dangerous trend.”

“People are concerned about overreaching legislation from Washington,” he said. “They are educating themselves on the Internet.”

Figures from federal authorities reflect a similar surge around the election.

In Colorado last Saturday, the number of background check requests for would-be gun buyers was the highest ever recorded in one day, according to figures from the Colorado Bureau of Investigation.

“We’re not really sure who is promoting the concept that a change in federal administrations might affect firearms possession rights,” an agency spokesman, Lance Clem, said, “but we do know that it’s increased business considerably.”

In some high gun ownership areas, Democrats have been distributing fliers assuring residents that Mr Obama supports the rights of individuals to own firearms.

The president-elect repeated that assurance on the campaign trail yet it is not so much this that has stuck in the conservative consciousness as his much reported remark that "bitter" small town Americans "cling to guns and religion".

The world according to Sarah Palin

Our friends at Comment Central have picked up an interesting news item about infighting in the Republican campaign and the shock of the McCain camp upon discovering just quite how poor Sarah Palin's knowledge of geography, let alone international affairs, really was.

Click to read the post and watch the video. And then breathe ...

Obama - which puppy should he buy?

He must have listened to the wise words ascribed to Harry Truman, his Democratic predecessor as president: "If you want a friend in Washington, get a dog."

As he stood on stage before tens of thousands of cheering supporters in Chicago to accept the presidency, Barack Obama turned to his daughters and solemnly pledged that they could have their very own dog to take to Washington.

"I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that's coming with us to the White House," Mr Obama told Malia, 10, Sasha, 7, and millions watching around the world.

That was the easy part. As Dad selects his Cabinet and has the drapes measured for the Oval Office, the future First Family must gather their advisors and plan which breed of puppy to buy.

Video: Daniel Finkelstein on how the night proved the pollsters right

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Election 2008 - live blogging

After almost two years of campaigning, the big day has finally arrived. Comment Central, Across the Pond and Times reporters are clubbing together to bring you live blog coverage of every rumour, smirk, gaffe and speech from an historic day of voting and a long night of results.

From Sea to Shining Sea. Twice.

New York to Washington DC

It is hard to know what to believe in this election. I never believed that Barack Obama would win.

Appropriately - given the road trip - it was a traffic jam that changed my mind. Driving into Cleveland, Ohio earlier this week, I ran into a jam. And sat there. And sat there. Pretty much the only other traffic jam this trip was in Yellowstone. Caused by indecisive bison.

When I finally inched my way to the top of the queue, I saw that the queue was being caused by hundreds of cars trying to get early voters to the polls. The overspill parking was overspilling. Hundreds of voters - almost all black - were waiting to cast their vote. You rarely witness a political landslide, but that is what it looked like in crucial Ohio.

I edged through Cleveland - to get to a John McCain rally in Mentor, Ohio. There, I joined the long queue. The elderly woman in front of me was clutching her sign, "Obama is a baby killer."

Early votes suggest record turnout - and boost for Barack Obama

With early voting closing across the country, the numbers are looking good for Barack Obama - and for American democracy. Some states have seen record levels of early voting - indicating that tomorrow's participation may surpass already towering expectations. In four key battlegrounds - Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and North Carolina - early votes have equalled at least two-thirds of all ballots cast in 2004, while in Florida and Georgia more than half of the 2004 totals have been surpassed - 54 and 61 per cent respectively.

In all, almost 29 million Americans have already cast their ballots and among these, more identify themselves as Democrats than Republicans, in some states by large margins. In Florida, 46 per cent of those voting early are Democrats while 38 per cent are Republicans - in 2004, 44 per cent of early voters were Republicans and just 41 per cent Democrats. In Louisiana, 56 per cent of early voters are Democrats compared to just 28 per cent for the Republicans. This does not necessarily translate into a vote for their respective candidates - but the likelihood is that the figures will be similar. For a full breakdown of the statistics, read this report from Dr Michael MacDonald of George Mason University.

The blog X Curmudgeon also has a handy compilation of polling conducted among early voters - there are a number of organisations currently focusing on this category. (Note - these results are not from exit polls as is stated.) The results vary widely but all give Obama a healthy lead; the majority indicate margins well into the double digits (today's CBS/New York Times poll, for example, gives Mr Obama a mammoth 17-point edge).

These figures represent a sharp reversal from the early voting advantage Republicans enjoyed four years ago, when President Bush won all six battleground states. If they are borne out tomorrow, the Democrats could see that longed-for landslide - if not, American democracy will be a winner at least.

A brief post for our readers stateside...

Playing with the idea of voting tomorrow? Have the patently historic nature of this Presidential election and your year-long bombardment by elections related media left you weighing up the merits of diverting your attention from Jerry Springer long enough to post a ballet? The kind folk at Starbucks have sympathy for your plight. Never ones to condescend, they're offering a free, (small), coffee as a reward to any one who makes it out to vote. And if coffee doesn't do it for you, here's a list of other incentives that might just make it worth your while:

Krispy Kreme are handing out free "star shaped doughnuts with patriotic sprinkles" to voters

Ben and Jerry's will give voters a free scoop of icecream

In Baltimore, voters will be recompensed with a free beer at Todd Conner's

From Shane's Rib Shack: a free "Vote America Meal" (chicken tenders and a beverage)

Zoo Atlanta is offering Georgian voters are their families half price admission

And finally Babeland, with outlets in New York, Los Angeles and Seattle, is doing its bit to encourage those inspired by more adult pursuits. "We're expecting a good response," says a spokesman. "Both these toys are very popular. The Maverick retails for $20 and the Silver Bullet retails for $15. It's a good reward."

Holding fire in Pennsylvania

Akron, Ohio to Lake Harmony, Pennsylvania

Philadelphia at one end, Pittsburgh at the other and Alabama in between, is how James Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist, described Pennsylvania.

That was back in 1986. In 1992, Bill Clinton – aided by Carville – won Pennsylvania, and the state has voted Democrat in every presidential election since.

But suddenly in 2008, the Keystone State is central to the McCain campaign. Although hemmed in on virtually all sides by states trending blue, John McCain and Sarah Palin have returned to the state again and again in recent weeks.

With its 21 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the only big battleground state that went for John Kerry in 2004. All the other battlezones – Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada – were in the Bush column last time round.

Real Clear Politics puts Obama nine points ahead in Pennsylvania. But surely there has to be something – maybe private polling – that makes the GOP think it has a chance here. The McCain campaign outspent the Obama campaign here until the beginning of October. And the Obama campaign just started advertising in Arizona, for heaven’s sake.

Greatest ever US presidents

Our brilliant colleagues on the Times Online news desk have compiled a scintillating run down of the best ever US presidents. American policy experts at The Times have debated and deliberated the records of all 42 Commanders-in-Chief.

Click here to discover who they selected as the best and the worst and why.

Something for Senator Obama to start thinking about perhaps?

The Obama 'infomercial': reactions from the blogosphere

Even before airing it was arguably the most talked about campaign ad in recent political history so it's no surprise that the blogosphere was today busily dissecting Barack Obama's 30 minute prime-time address to the nation. Watch the video below if you managed to miss it and read on below the jump for a selection of views from left and right.

Note - the first video is the prerecorded segment, lasting a full 27 minutes. The video below contains the live three-minute portion at the end - start at 7 minutes to avoid repetition.

Put your hands up for Detroit

Chicago, Illinois to Detroit, Michigan

Michigan provided the world with early signs of Sarah Palin’s “whack job” tendencies. Faced with slumping Michigan polls combined with the news that steadfast states like Virginia and North Carolina were swerving wildly off course, the McCain campaign decided to cut their losses at the beginning of October.

Democrat John Kerry won Michigan’s 17 electoral votes in 2004 and, even several weeks ago, the McCain campaign realised that hanging onto red states, rather than trying to turn around blue states, would be the key to this election.

(“Apart from Pennsylvania,” they thought. “If things really fall apart in New Mexico/Nevada/Colorado.” Then, “What? Really? Move, move, MOVE on Pennsylvania.”)

So the day before the vice-president debate, as America waited agog for the showdown between Palin and Joe Biden, the Republicans shut down operations in Michigan. News that the Republicans had disintegrated in a huge key battleground flickered across television screens for a few minutes – then disappeared.

Until Palin popped up. “I want to get back to Michigan, and I want to try,” she told Fox News. “Todd and I, we'd be happy to get to Michigan. We'd be so happy to speak to the people there in Michigan who are hurting.”

She’d fired off emails, she said, “Oh c’mon, do we have to?”

Folksy and resolute. 2012, we are go. Collapse in Michigan and possible friction in the campaign ricochet back up the news agenda.

Grooming the Candidates

Policy is so last season. The modern, metrosexual presidential candidate knows and values the criteria on which elections really hang. As politico notes, Washington's only men's-only beauty parlour has, in the words of Grooming Lounge co-owner Michael Gilman, "predicted the last three presidential winners based on the candidates grooming habits and more specifically by the condition of their eyebrows". With six days remaining for White House hopefuls to step up to the mark, here's their advice:

McCain: 'Eyebrows of mass destruction... Our research shows that the last five elections have been won by the candidate with more well groomed eyebrows. Senator McCain needs to do some trimming of those caterpillars to stay in the race... There are certainly concerns about Senator McCain's age and health. Some of this could be eased if he would use a subtle self tanning product. Such a product would make him look less pale, healthier ultimately and a bit younger.'

Todd Palin: 'Since some are questioning the Governor's maturity and experience, Mr Palin should help her out by shaving his youthful goatee. Such a goatee makes him look a bit collegiate...'

Obama: 'the Senator's love of basketball has been showcased on many media outlets, as his his tendancy to wear full-length sweatpants... [they] make him look a little 'out of touch' and like he's hiding something (does he have three knees?). We suggest he go with standard long shorts for continued mass appeal... some intellectual-type glasses might make the Senator look a bit more mature and swing some older votes.'

Biden: 'The vote is neck and neck... Biden needs to take a trimmer to his neckline. Voters want someone who pays attention to the details... like too much hair on the back of their necks.'

My kind of town, Chicago is...

Terre Haute, Indiana to Chicago, Illinois

I love it when politicians have nothing else to lose. John McCain has nothing to lose in Chicago. So when he calls Barack Obama “a Chicago politician” everyone knows exactly what he means.

Now that she’s all classy and Cloud Gate-d, Chicago does not like being reminded of her somewhat unladylike past.

“And what is that supposed to mean?” she says primly. “How dare you?”

“What are you going to do about it?” says McCain.

“I’ll, I’ll... I’ll vote for Obama.”

“No, really? Chicago in ‘voting for Illinois Democrat’ shocker.”

“Bite me!” bawls Chicago, forgetting all about being ladylike. “Punk.”

You can only be rude about cities that are definitely never ever going to vote for you. One hundred miles north of Chicago, radio ads are running in Wisconsin, reminding residents that McCain once said that he “would hate to live in Milwaukee.”

“What?” squeals Wisconsin. “What exactly is wrong with Milwaukee?”

Who's the greatest? The Times US presidential rankings

As America prepares to elect it 43rd president, a panel of Times experts have been asked to rank the previous 42 in order of greatness. Click here to read the first installment and find out who the panel voted the ten worst presidents.

Gallup: "Late Upsets are Rare"

Our ever-informative friends over at the Gallup polling organization have an excellent look back at elections of years past and what the polls looked like with a week to go. Their conclusion is that late comebacks aren't without precedent, but they certainly don't happen often.

In fact, only twice since 1952 have the polls shown a candidate leading this late in the race who did not go on to win the popular vote.

Jimmy Carter famously led Ronald Reagan by 8 points with less than two weeks to go, but their final debate and the 1-year anniversary of the Iran Hostage Crisis fell in that span and certainly contributed to the Republican's momentum. Alternatively, George W. Bush led Al Gore heading into election day in 2000, only to lose the popular vote while winning the Electoral College and the Presidency.

Outside of those two instances, the polls have largely held up, although they tend to tighten considerably leading up to election day. Look for John McCain to try to create a game-changer in the next few days, albeit without the benefit of the hostage crisis.

Amazon.com lists Obama mask under "terrorist costumes"

The popular website, Amazon.com, moved quickly this morning to remove a Barack Obama Hallowe'en mask from a category listing "Terrorist Costumes."

The LA Times blog, Top of the Ticket, caught their mistake and captured a screenshot of the page. Click on the image below for a larger view.

Just asking, how does a company that does millions and millions in sales each year let something like this slip through? Woops.

Indiana - part of a different battle?

St Louis, Missouri to Terre Haute, Indiana

George Bush won Indiana by 20 points in 2004. Indiana has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate precisely once since 1936. The Republicans thought those were the statistics that mattered.

Barack Obama made 47 visits to Indiana this year. John McCain made two. That may be the statistic that actually matters.

There are two arguments for states like Indiana. The first is that the Republicans have been caught on the hop. Their voter registration and their get-out-the-vote machinery stagnated. In Indiana, like in Virginia and North Carolina, the Grand Old Party was outspent and outmanoeuvred by Obama’s new fighting force.

Sarah Palin is now making emergency trips to Indiana, but it may be too little, too late. The local newspaper notes pertly that McCain has not visited since 1 July. Obama dashed through even as he was heading off to Hawaii to see his ill grandmother.

Almost missing key battleground Missouri

Mount Pleasant, Iowa to St Louis, Missouri

When I fished out the back of an envelope to plot this trip a few weeks ago, Missouri did not feature. I meant to head through Minnesota and carry on through Wisconsin, before popping down to Chicago.

But suddenly, Wisconsin stopped swinging. Wisconsin went from being a coy little flirt to a prim Democrat lady in the space of about two weeks.

Suddenly it was all about Missouri. Yeah, yeah, I thought. Missouri? Whatever. John Kerry got whipped there. Where is Missouri, anyway? But then a few days ago I looked at some polling and thought “Crikey, it really is all about Missouri.”

So I dug out the atlas and tracked down Missouri. There it was, right next to Arkansas and Oklahoma and those other states that you can – sometimes, maybe – forget actually exist. Until you have to drive across them. Then I made a right off the mind-numbing I-90 and headed down through Iowa.

Thrillingly, shortly after I crossed the stateline into Missouri, I came across some hills for the first time in about three states. See, I thought, record-breaking crowds of 100,000 can’t be wrong. Then I headed down the Great River Road, which winds lazily along the banks of the Mississippi. Driving south catapulted me back into autumn, after several days of freezing winter in Idaho and Wyoming.

All in all, Wisconsin falling off the swing state list has been rather wonderful. Although I am fairly sure John McCain doesn’t look out of the windows of the Straight Talk Express and think “Oh good, look at all our lovely retrenching in scenic Missouri.”

Obama reaps harvest in Iowa

Jackson, Minnesota to Mount Pleasant, Iowa

I was delighted to find that Iowa actually exists. I have never been to Iowa before, so in my head it evolved into some mystical focus group, a magical place where once every four years citizens get together in peculiar clusters and decide who will be the next President of the United States.

It was back in January that Barack Obama won that first caucus here. And although it took Hillary Clinton months to realise, that was pretty much that. If she wasn’t going to win in white, rural, blue-collar Iowa, she wasn’t going to win.

Yes, it might have been different if her campaign hadn’t underestimated the importance of caucuses in favour of the primaries. Yes, it might have been different if John Edwards had been defenestrated by then, allowing her to come second rather than that merciless third. But really it was all over bar the shouting. A lot of shouting.

That Democratic caucus simultaneously laid the groundwork for John McCain’s increasingly likely defeat in the presidential election. In 2004, Iowa and its seven electoral votes went to George Bush by 49.9% to 49.3%.

Minnesota reverts to type

Kadoka, South Dakota to Jackson, Minnesota

I’m not sure what Janet Porter – one of the leading lights of conservative talk radio – normally sounds like, but she was pretty frenzied today. She was imploring America to pray for guidance on how to vote in less than two weeks’ time. A slightly hysterical Porter didn’t seem to think the correct divine message had been getting through so far.

In Porter’s callers rang, hitting all the usual talking points – is Barack Obama a natural-born American? Has anyone seen his birth certificate? Was he secretly born in Kenya? Did you know Iranian leaders had backed Obama? Etc etc.

“I don’t know about the birth certificate/Kenya/Iran,” answered Porter, “But you wonder, don’t you? You just wonder. Ayres! Muslim! ACORN!”

I’m paraphrasing because I was driving down the crashingly dull I-90 as I listened to all this. I cheered myself up with the thought of locking Janet Porter and Janet Street-Porter in a room together and seeing which one emerged alive.

Eventually, after hundreds of miles of soggy grey fields under a soggy grey sky, I wound up in Minnesota.

The pro-America America

Twenty-two thousand people showed up Monday to greet Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin in the western Colorado town of Grand Junction. After all the crowd controversy  of the last few weeks, I'm sure she was thrilled to get out of there without any major news being made.

Unfortunately, no one mentioned that to this guy. The Post Independent reports:

Heated words between drivers leaving Sarah Palin’s rally Monday allegedly escalated with one man brandishing a loaded handgun.

Jack B. Cheskaty, 62, of Grand Junction, said he pulled a handgun because “he wanted to be ready for anything” in what started as a verbal spat between drivers in bumper-to-bumper traffic leaving Lincoln Park around 8 p.m. Monday, according to an arrest affidavit.

Cheskaty was booked on a felony menacing charge, so he'd better cast his ballot early. If convicted, this might be his last chance.